From Crude to Crop: Cultivating Economic Diversity in Algeria through Agricultural Sector

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Seyf Eddine Benbekhti, Ilhem Benaissa, Fatima Benbouziane, Hadjer Boulila

Abstract

This study aims to critically evaluate Algeria's shift towards economic diversification with a special emphasis on the agricultural sector's contribution. Employing Vector Autoregression (VAR) models over the time span from 2000 to 2024, we analyze the interconnected effects of shocks in non-hydrocarbon sectors, government agricultural spending, food imports, and foreign direct investment in agriculture on the diversification process. The methodology integrates a comprehensive set of variables, including GDP from non-oil sectors, agricultural productivity,government expenditures on agriculture, and import-export dynamics and HHI calculated index to provide a multifaceted view of the economic diversification landscape. Results highlight the potential of the agricultural sector as a key driver for reducing oil dependency and suggest recommendations for strengthening sector linkages, optimizing government spending, and enhancing competitiveness.

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